Who is Buying the Croissant

Overview:

This analysis examines customer purchase behavior related to croissants at a café, aiming to uncover trends and relationships between croissant sales, customer demographics, and other product pairings. The goal is to identify optimal strategies for increasing croissant sales, such as through product placement, promotions, and bundling opportunities.

Key Results:

• Croissant Purchase Rate:
  • 28.15% of customers buy croissants, while the remaining 71.85% do not. This suggests that croissants are moderately popular, but not a guaranteed upsell for every customer.
  • Croissants should be considered an "optional" item, ideal for targeted promotions or bundling with other items, especially for customers who have not yet purchased them.
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• Purchase Rate by Day of the Week:
  • Monday sees the highest purchase rate at 34.3%, with weekends showing lower rates—Saturday (33.4%) and Sunday (27.8%). This indicates no clear spike in croissant sales over the weekend.
  • Implement early-week promotions, particularly from Monday to Wednesday, to tap into customer demand for a treat or pick-me-up, instead of focusing solely on weekends.
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• Angbutter and Croissant Pairing:
  • 28.3% of angbutter buyers also bought a croissant, while 71.7% did not. This suggests that croissants are not commonly paired with angbutter.
  • Do not prioritize bundling croissants with angbutter in promotions or product placement. Instead, identify other items that may be more naturally paired with croissants for higher cross-sell potential.
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• Croissant and Caffe Latte Purchase Independence:
  • 28.15% of all customers purchase a croissant, compared to 28.5% of caffe latte buyers. This nearly identical probability suggests that croissant and caffe latte purchases are independent from one another.
  • While not a natural pairing for default promotions, consider offering croissants as an optional addition for caffe latte buyers in customizable sets or upsell opportunities.
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Goals Alignment:

The company’s goals are to increase sales, optimize inventory and staffing, and enhance customer satisfaction by offering the right products at the right time. The findings from this analysis directly relate to these goals by identifying when and how croissants are purchased, and which product pairings are most likely to drive additional sales.

Impact:

• Sales Growth: By understanding when croissants are most likely to be purchased (e.g., early-week) and which items are naturally paired with them (e.g., coffee), the company can optimize its marketing strategies and increase croissant sales.
• Operational Efficiency: By understanding croissant purchase behavior, the business can align inventory management and staffing with customer demand, reducing waste and ensuring efficient operations.
• Customer Satisfaction: Tailored promotional offers based on purchasing patterns will enhance the customer experience, offering products they are more likely to purchase together, improving overall satisfaction.

Data Interpretation:

• Purchase Behavior Across Days of the Week: The slight dip in croissant purchases on weekends could be attributed to various factors, including customer preferences for other products on those days, or a focus on larger meals instead of pastries. Additionally, customers may be more inclined to purchase croissants on weekdays, perhaps as a mid-morning snack or breakfast treat.
• Pairing with Angbutter: The data shows a low overlap between angbutter and croissant buyers. While both items are popular, they do not appear to be naturally paired together. Customers who purchase angbutter do not exhibit a strong preference for croissants, suggesting that bundling these products may not drive significant cross-sell opportunities.
• Independence from Caffe Latte: The independence of croissant purchases from caffe latte purchases suggests that while croissants are often bought with coffee, the two items do not exhibit a strong association. This could indicate that croissants are a common product choice for many customers, regardless of their drink choice, and that any promotions should focus more on customizable offers rather than default pairings.

Contextual Factors:

• Customer Preferences: Customers may seek a lighter snack like a croissant during certain times of the week, particularly when they are looking for a quick, convenient option like a breakfast item or afternoon snack.
• Market Trends: Trends in coffee and pastry consumption may influence how often customers choose croissants. For instance, cafes may see higher demand for pastries in the morning as part of the breakfast routine or paired with coffee.

Recommendations:

• Targeted Early-Week Promotions: Offer special deals or discounts on croissants from Monday to Wednesday, as sales are slightly higher at the beginning of the week. Consider time-limited offers like “Start Your Week with a Croissant” to create a sense of urgency.
• Cross-Promote with Coffee: Since croissants are commonly bought with coffee, consider offering bundled deals for croissants with various coffee options. A "Pastry & Coffee Pairing" promotion could be a great way to boost sales and increase customer satisfaction by offering discounts on paired items.
• Reevaluate Pairings with Angbutter: Since there is no strong correlation between angbutter and croissant purchases, avoid focusing promotional efforts on bundling these two items. Instead, focus on cross-sell opportunities with other pastries or beverages that have stronger associations with croissants.
• Customize Add-Ons for Caffe Latte Purchasers: Given the independence of croissant and caffe latte purchases, offer croissants as an optional add-on to caffe latte buyers. This could be presented as a quick, convenient option for customers looking to complement their coffee with a snack.

Conclusion:

The analysis reveals key trends in croissant purchasing behavior, showing that while croissants are moderately popular, their sales are more likely to spike during weekdays rather than weekends. Pairing opportunities with coffee are more effective than bundling with angbutter, and there is no strong link between croissants and caffe latte purchases. By optimizing promotional strategies, focusing on targeted early-week offers, and creating customizable pairings, the company can increase croissant sales and improve customer satisfaction. These actionable insights will support the business in making informed decisions that align with customer preferences and improve overall sales performance.