Why You Should Consider Sarawak

Study Context:

This analysis uses binomial distribution to evaluate crime trends across Malaysia, specifically focusing on the period from 2016 to 2023. The dataset is sourced from the Royal Malaysia Police and the Department of Statistics Malaysia, based on transactional report-level data collected by the Police Reporting System. The dataset includes actual crimes where a conviction has already occurred, and the aim of this analysis is to understand whether crime reduction trends are statistically significant and how they vary by state. This analysis will guide strategic business decisions, particularly in terms of relocation, real estate investment, and business setup.

Overview:

The objective of this analysis is to examine crime trends in Malaysia, specifically focusing on whether certain regions, such as Sarawak, consistently show reductions in crime. The insights from this analysis are crucial for stakeholders, including property investors, entrepreneurs, and government policymakers, as they consider relocating businesses or setting up factories. The study assesses whether states with declining crime rates offer safer environments for investment, residential planning, and long-term business operations.

Key Questions

1. Which states consistently show real, measurable reductions in crime — not just random fluctuations?

The analysis of crime reduction rates by state shows that Melaka, Kelantan, and Kedah exhibited the highest crime reduction rates in the dataset, with Melaka showing a 53% reduction, though none of these reductions were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This means that while crime reductions are observed, they may be due to random variation.

For relocation or investment decisions, it is important to focus on states like Sarawak, which show more consistent district-level reductions over the years, as opposed to relying on state-wide statistics that may lack long-term reliability.

2. Are safety improvements sustained across multiple years and districts, or are they isolated events?

Sarawak stands out with 27 districts showing sustained crime reductions over three or more years, suggesting a systemic improvement in crime rates. This is in contrast to states like Perlis and Melaka, where reductions were more isolated.

The consistency in crime reduction across districts in Sarawak signals a stable and secure environment for long-term investments. Businesses seeking stability should prioritize states with widespread and sustained improvements, such as Sarawak.

3. What is the likelihood that crime will continue to decline in a given state based on historical data?

The analysis shows that states like Terengganu (52.7%) and Kedah (51.4%) have the highest likelihood of continued crime reduction. In contrast, states like Perlis (45.2%) and Negeri Sembilan (45.9%) have lower probabilities.

States like Terengganu and Kedah show promising long-term trends for improving safety, making them attractive for investment and relocation decisions. The data suggests that these states may offer a safer and more stable environment moving forward.

4. How do crime trends vary by state, and which states pose higher safety risks for long-term settlement or business setup?

The Crime Risk Index was developed using the formula:
Risk Index = (1 - Crime Reduction Rate) × Average Crime Volume. States with the highest crime risk include W.P. Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and Pulau Pinang, while Perlis, Sarawak, and Terengganu present the lowest risk indices.

For businesses looking to relocate or set up factories, Sarawak stands out as a low-risk, high-opportunity state. Its consistently improving crime trends and low crime volume make it an ideal location for long-term investments.

Goals Alignment:

• Revenue Growth: The analysis highlights that states with low crime risk, such as Sarawak, are more likely to provide a secure environment for businesses, potentially leading to higher revenue growth due to increased consumer confidence and long-term stability.
• Cost Reduction: By identifying states with lower crime risks, businesses can lower operational costs associated with security, insurance, and employee retention.
• Customer Retention: Safe and secure environments improve customer satisfaction, fostering trust in businesses and encouraging long-term consumer loyalty.

Impact:

The findings directly contribute to strategic business decisions related to site selection, investment, and relocation. The Crime Risk Index and confidence in crime reduction provide clear, actionable insights into which states offer a safe, stable environment for business operations, residential settlement, and investment opportunities.

Data Interpretation:

• Crime Reduction: States like Sarawak, Sabah, and Selangor show consistent crime reductions, as evidenced by the number of districts with sustained improvements. The binomial distribution analysis reveals that crime reduction trends in these states are significant enough to warrant attention for future planning. However, states like W.P. Kuala Lumpur and Selangor show wider variations in crime trends, indicating less reliability in long-term safety improvements.

Contextual Factors:

• Urbanization and Governance: Urban areas like Kuala Lumpur and Selangor experience higher crime volumes due to population density, whereas rural areas like Sarawak benefit from lower crime volumes and more consistent governance.
• Security Measures: States with systemic improvements in crime reduction likely have better policing and community engagement, which contribute to the observed trends.

Recommendation:

Based on the findings, businesses looking to relocate, expand, or set up factories should prioritize Sarawak, Terengganu, and Perlis due to their low crime risk and sustained improvements. These states offer a secure environment for long-term growth and stability. In contrast, businesses in W.P. Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and Pulau Pinang should carefully assess local conditions and consider implementing robust risk mitigation strategies.

• Invest in Low-Risk Areas: Focus on Sarawak, Terengganu, and Perlis for future business investments, real estate, and factory setups.
• Monitor Regional Trends: Regularly monitor crime trends in urban areas like Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, where crime patterns may fluctuate, and adjust risk mitigation plans accordingly.
• Strengthen Security Measures: For businesses operating in higher-risk areas, invest in community policing, private security, and employee safety programs to reduce risks and ensure long-term success.

Conclusion:

The analysis of crime trends from 2016 to 2023 provides valuable insights into the safety landscape of Malaysia, particularly in relation to long-term settlement and business expansion. While no state shows definitive, statistically significant crime reductions, Sarawak, Perlis, and Terengganu stand out for their sustained improvements, making them ideal candidates for relocation, investment, and industrial development. Conversely, W.P. Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and Pulau Pinang pose higher risks due to inconsistent crime reductions and higher crime volumes. For businesses seeking stability, Sarawak offers the most promising opportunity, making it an ideal location for long-term investment and expansion.