Plan for the Peaks

A 120-room Langkawi resort books almost the same number of room-nights every year, so on the annual figures it looks settled. The real story sits inside the year.

Three years of monthly bookings show two resorts in one. In the peak months it runs near 94% full; in the quiet months it sits around 52%, barely half. The busiest month does close to twice the business of the quietest.

There is no growth to lean on either: the annual total moved about 2% across three years, inside normal noise. The base is flat; the swing is seasonal.

Run to the yearly average and the resort is wrong almost every month, short of rooms and staff in December and June, over-staffed with empty rooms in February and September.

Carrying the pattern forward, 2025 is forecast at about 28,600 room-nights, with December near 3,500 (94% full) and February near 1,750 (52%). Tested by hiding the most recent year and predicting it, the forecast landed within about 2.5% of what actually happened.

The move is a twelve-month plan sized to the season: firm rates and a full team through the peaks, promotions and a lighter roster through the troughs, and stock and hiring prepared in the calmer months before each peak.