Riding the Growth Curve

An online store grew from about RM48,000 a month at the start of 2022 to RM257,000 by the end of 2024, close to three times bigger in three years, at roughly 4.9% a month.

On top of that climb sits a clear year-end pattern: November and December are the biggest months, January and February the quietest.

Carrying both forward, 2025 revenue is forecast at about RM3.46 million, up roughly 56% on the past year, with December the biggest month yet near RM386,000.

The risk for a store growing this fast is rarely weak demand. It is running out of stock or cash before the demand arrives.

Tested by hiding the most recent year and predicting it, the forecast that followed both the growth and the festive lift came within about 14%. A simpler method that ignored the growth was off by 54%, more than three times worse.

The plan is to budget for a bigger business each month, build stock and ads ahead of the year-end peak, keep cash ahead of the growth, and refresh the forecast each quarter.