What Moves the Cooler
Four signals explain 93% of a store's daily drink sales
A convenience store's daily cold-drink sales swing from about 40 units on quiet days to over 100 on busy ones. It looks unpredictable.
It is not. Four things the shop can see in advance explain most of it: the temperature, the shelf price, whether there is a promotion, and whether it is a weekend or public holiday. Together they account for 93% of the day-to-day difference.
Each driver has a price tag. Every degree hotter adds about 7 more drinks sold; every RM1 added to the price costs about 21; a promotion adds about 34, a public holiday 18, a weekend 12.
Put together, a day-ahead forecast was off by only about 7%. A simple guess that ignored the drivers and used the average day was off by 20%.
That turns ordering and promotions from instinct into a few dials: stock to the weather, time promotions for slow days, treat price as a volume decision, and carry more into weekends and the day before holidays.