Case Studies /The Quiet Slide
Delivery-app seller · Business health check

The Quiet Slide

Why higher average order value can mislead

Data Stories LabInteractive dashboardBurger & Pizza shop · Jan–Jun 2026
Monthly data, Jan to Jun 2026. Section 4 relationships are read with care (short window).
Orders are sliding month after month
Orders per month
Source: monthly seller data, Jan to Jun 2026.
Sales held up only because baskets grew
Sales after discounts (bars) vs average order (line)
Sales in thousands of ringgit (RM k); average order in ringgit.
Two levers down, one cushioning up
Change from January to June
Sales = menu traffic x ordering rate x basket size.
Fewer menu views, and fewer of them order
Menu views (bars) and ordering rate (line)
Ordering rate is the share of menu views that become orders.
The biggest drop is at the very first step
People remaining at each step, June
Menu view, add to cart, reach payment, complete order.
The ordering rate keeps slipping
Share of menu views that become orders
Source: monthly seller data, Jan to Jun 2026.
What moves together across the shop
Strength of link, +1 (together) to -1 (opposite)
Read with care: six months only, a link is not proof of cause.
Winning a customer costs more, still under an order
Cost to win a new order (dashed) vs order value (solid)
Cost to win = ad spend divided by new orders.
Ads pay back less and less
Sales returned per unit of ad spend
Source: monthly seller data. Higher is better.
The loyal base is thinning out
Repeat orders (line) vs new orders (line)
Repeat customers are cheaper to serve than bought ones.
When customers order, June
Share of orders by time of day
Dinner and late night carry most orders.
Priority actions, ranked
Top rows protect money being lost now
#Do thisWhy
1Fix menu to cart stepBiggest leak, ~25% reach cart
2Cut blanket discountsOrders track discounts, sales do not
3Win back repeat customersLoyal base is thinning
4Cap and re-target adsReturn halved, cost per customer doubled
5Lift burger basket with bundlesBurger order worth less than pizza
Full list in the analyst report and priority-action-list.csv.