What moves the cooler
Heat, price and promotions drive daily drink sales
Data Stories LabInventory plannerCold-drink sales540 days · 2023 to mid-2024
Showing all 540 days
Overview
-
avg daily demand
-
busiest day
-
quietest day
-
days in view
Daily demand swings widely, but not randomly
Drinks sold per day
Source: 540 days of cold-drink sales. The swing is what stock has to cover.
Demand drivers
+7
drinks per degree hotter
-21
drinks per +RM1 price
+34
drinks on a promo day
93%
of the swing explained
Hotter days sell more
Drinks sold vs temperature
Source: each dot is one day. Temperature is the biggest driver.
A higher price sells fewer
Drinks sold vs shelf price
Source: each dot is one day. Price is a volume lever.
Promos, holidays and weekends lift demand
Average drinks sold by day type
Source: average over the days in view.
Weekends run hottest
Average drinks sold by day of week
Source: average over the days in view.
Day-ahead forecast
93%
of demand explained
7%
day-ahead forecast error
20%
error if you ignore drivers
+34
biggest swing (a promo)
Order to the forecast, not the average
Forecast error: using the drivers vs a flat average day
Source: backtest on the last 90 days. Lower is better.
What each condition does to a day
Expected drinks on a typical day under each change
Source: from a typical 64-unit day at RM 2.80. Levers stack.
Stock plan
5
stock levers to plan around
+34
biggest stock add (promo)
+7
weather buffer per degree
7%
order within
Hot days: stock up
Watch the forecast
Each degree hotter adds about 7 drinks. Add cooler stock and ice ahead of hot days, ease off before cool ones.
Weekends & holidays: carry more
Sat, Sun, holidays
Weekends add about 12 drinks and public holidays about 18. Carry extra stock into them, and stock up the day before a holiday.
Promotions: order extra, time them well
Promo days
A promo adds about 34 drinks. Order extra for promo days, and run promos to lift slow days rather than already-busy ones.
How much to stock: the levers
Each condition you can plan around, and the extra stock it calls for
| Condition | Extra units to stock | What to do |
|---|
Source: measured effect of each lever on a typical day. They stack: a hot promo weekend needs several buffers at once.